Middlesbrough-based Ramsdens (RFX:197p), a diversified and fast-growing financial services company, joined London’s junior market early last year, and has been posting a series of earnings beats ever since.
To put the upgrade cycle into perspective, when I suggested buying the shares, at 132p ('A jewel in the north', 12 Jun 2017), analyst Justin Bates at Liberum Capital predicted the company would deliver pre-tax profit of £4.8m and EPS of 12.6p in the financial year to the end of March 2018. He subsequently upgraded his estimates twice last autumn to £6.23m and 16.2p, respectively. In the event, Ramsdens increased pre-tax profit by 56 per cent to £6.31m and delivered EPS of 16.4p, up from £4m and 10.1p in the 2017 financial year.
The fivefold rise in the payout to 6.6p a share was better than I had expected and is supported by a bumper operating cash inflow of £5.5m, which boosted closing net funds by a third to £12.7m, a sum worth 41p a share. This provides the directors ample capital to finance a planned store roll-out programme of 10 new stores this year at an average cash cost of £220,000 each. A 30-month payback period for their investment highlights the high returns to be made. The cash pile also offers firepower for the directors to make small bolt-on acquisitions on the pawnbroking side of the business, with a view to cross-selling Ramsdens' full product range in the acquired businesses. It makes sense to do so in light of the success the company is enjoying.
Specific profit drivers
A key driver behind this stellar organic growth story has been the company’s highly competitive foreign currency arm, which exchanged £483m-worth of currency, up from £408m in the previous financial year, for 687,000 retail customers. Total commission rose by more than a quarter to £11.3m to account for 40 per cent of the company’s total gross profit of £28.3m, partly reflecting the 13 per cent growth in transactions but also a focus on margin pricing, with Ramsdens increasing its cut from 2.2 per cent to 2.33 per cent per transaction.
There was also a strong contribution from the company’s pawnbroking operation, which has 34,000 customers and raised its loan book by 8 per cent to £6.4m. Interest income increased at even faster rate, up 14 per cent to £7m to account for 25 per cent of Ramsdens’ gross profits, reflecting higher lending on jewellery. The company has been able to do so because it has been scaling up its jewellery retail operations by cross-selling to its 800,000 customers through the 131 store network and increasing its online presence. The jewellery retail business increased revenues by more than a third to £8m and lifted gross profits by a quarter to £4.1m.
Value on offer
Admittedly, investors are cottoning onto the ongoing growth story, which is why the company’s share price is up 46 per cent in the past year. However, there is still value on offer as net of cash on the balance sheet the shares are still only rated on nine times Liberum’s conservative looking upgraded EPS estimates of 17p for the new financial year. They also offer a prospective dividend yield of 3.6 per cent based on a payout of 7.1p a share.
So, having last advised buying the shares at 185p ahead of the full-year results (‘Riding earnings momentum, 16 April 2018), I feel a new target of 225p a share is warranted to value the equity at £69.5m and give the company an enterprise value of £56m net of cash, or seven times annual cash profits. Moreover, even if my target is achieved it still represents a ratings discount to rival H&T (HAT:351p), which is rated on eight times this year’s likely cash profits to enterprise value. I included H&T, at 289p, in my 2017 Bargain Shares Portfolio, since when the board have paid out total dividends of 15.8p, and have a 400p target based on a 2018 cash profit multiple of nine times (‘Bargain Shares: Beating the market Part II’, 14 Mar 2018).
With scope for the ratings discount to its larger rival to narrow, and the company making a good start to the new financial year, Ramsden’s shares rate a buy.
■ Simon Thompson's new book Successful Stock Picking Strategies was published on 15 March and can be purchased online at www.ypdbooks.com, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 to place an order. It is being sold through no other source and is priced at £16.95 plus £2.95 postage and packaging.
Simon's second book Stock Picking for Profit has now been reprinted and is available to purchase online at www.ypdbooks.com for £16.95, plus £2.95 postage and packaging, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 to place an order.
